Discussion Subject of the Week 28th of April - 2nd of May

CAUSES OF FOOD CRISIS IN THE WORLD

1. Global Warming

Crops feel the heat as the world warms http://thefraserdomain.typepad.com/energy/2007/03/global_warming__1.html

Stanford, Calif. – Over a span of two decades, warming temperatures have caused annual losses of roughly $5 billion for major food crops, according to a new study by researchers at the Carnegie Institution and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.
From 1981-2002, warming reduced the combined production of wheat, corn, and barley—cereal grains that form the foundation of much of the world’s diet—by 40 million metric tons per year. The study, which will be published March 16 in the online journal Environmental Research Letters, demonstrates that this decline is due to human-caused increases in global temperatures.

"Most people tend to think of climate change as something that will impact the future,” said Christopher Field, co-author on the study and director of Carnegie’s Department of Global Ecology in Stanford, Calif. “But this study shows that warming over the past two decades has already had real effects on global food supply."

The study is the first to estimate how much global food production has already been affected by climate change. Field and David Lobell, lead author of the study and a researcher at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, compared yield figures from the Food and Agriculture Organization with average temperatures and precipitation in the major growing regions.
They found that, on average, global yields for several of the crops responded negatively to warmer temperatures, with yields dropping by about 3-5 percent for every 1 degree F increase. Average global temperatures increased by about 0.7 degrees F during the study period, with even larger changes in several regions.
“Though the impacts are relatively small compared to the technological yield gains over the same period, the results demonstrate that negative impacts are already occurring,” said Lobell.
The researchers focused on the six most widely grown crops in the world: wheat, rice, maize (corn), soybeans, barley and sorghum—a genus of about 30 species of grass raised for grain. These crops occupy more than 40 percent of the world’s cropland, and account for at least 55 percent of non-meat calories consumed by humans. They also contribute more than 70 percent of the world’s animal feed.
The main value of this study, the authors said, was that it demonstrates a clear and simple correlation between temperature increases and crop yields at the global scale. However, Field and Lobell also used this information to further investigate the relationship between observed warming trends and agriculture.


2. Impact of food for fuel

Food vs fuel concerns the competition between food and fuel on a global scale. Biofuel production has increased in recent years. Some commodities like maize or vegetable oil can be used either as food or to make fuel. Land that was also formerly used to grow other crops is now used to grow maize for biofuels. With global demand for biofuels on the increase many natural habitats are also being converted into farmland. This is a recent phenomenon and is considered to be one of the primary causes of 2007–2008 world food price crisis.
One systemic cause for the price rise is held to be the diversion of food crops (maize in particular) for making first-generation biofuels. An estimated 100 million tonnes of grain per year are being redirected from food to fuel. As farmers devoted larger parts of their crops to fuel production than in previous years, land and resources available for food production were reduced correspondingly. This has resulted in less food available for human consumption, especially in developing and least developed countries, where a family's daily allowances for food purchases are extremely limited. Filling a tank of an average car with biofuel, amounts to as much maize as an African person consumes in an entire year.

3. Population Growth (www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/aug/31/climatechange.food)

According to the UN's food and agriculture programme, 854 million people do not have sufficient food for an active and healthy life.
The global population has risen substantially in recent decades. Between 1980 and 2000 it rose from 4.4bn to 6.1bn and food production increased 50%. By 2050 the population is expected to reach 9bn.

KEY FINDINGS of FOOD CRISIS REPORT (www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/apr/15/food.unitednations)

Bio-energy

Millions of people depend on traditional bio-energy like wood fuels and the report urges improvements in this area. At the moment biofuels like bio-ethanol and biodiesel compete for land and water with food crops and are not very efficient. They can also often cause deforestation and damage soils and water.

Biotechnology

The report highlights the significant lack of communication in the current agricultural system. Information exchange is often anecdotal and contradictory and there is a great deal of uncertainty over which methods ensure the highest and best yields of food. The use of GM crops, where the technology is not contained, is contentious, the UN says. Data on some crops indicate highly variable yield gains of 10-33% in some places and declines in others. The report stresses that local expertise needs to be maintained and improved.

Climate change

This is causing irreversible damage to the natural resources on which agriculture depends. While modest temperature rises may increase food yields in some areas, a general warming of the world temperatures risks damaging all regions of the globe. As extreme weather becomes more frequent there will be serious potential for conflict over habitable land and resources like fresh water.

Water

The report highlights how large parts of central and western Asia and much of Africa are running out of water. About half of those regions' internal renewable water resources are already below the minimum threshold for development – 500 cubic metres per person per year. By 2020, the water available per person will probably be about one-third of the 1950 level, or even less. The IAASTD warns that a major challenge is ensuring there is enough water as well as food. The regions' crop yield increases are generally below the world average, leaving most of these poor countries as net food importers, even though they are rich in agricultural biodiversity.

Displacement

The east and south-east Asia-Pacific region accounts for the largest numbers of environmentally displaced people in the world - a consequence of natural hazards as well as some planned production-enhancing investments, including dams and plantations. In addition, 60% of the ecosystems are degraded or used unsustainably because of current agricultural policies. The report warns that without the commitment of governments to ensure secure agricultural development, displacement and the knock-on effects will quickly spiral towards socio-economic turmoil that could be irreversible. Pollution and over-exploitation are damaging the farming potential of poor areas and locals are also being scarred by social ills such as illiteracy, which for example affects 80% of rural Moroccan women. Good governance is also rare.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/08/06/opinion/edsimoes.php
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Food_vs_fuel#cite_note-0
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007-2008_world_food_price_crisis

Posted by Sezen Bayhan, English Instructor at İTÜ YDY